Archive for January, 2008

After the SC primary, I noted that it would be instructive to know how Edwards voters would break between Obama and Hillary, if Edwards was out of the race. I had no way of knowing then that Edwards would drop out so soon.  Even though I realize that this is a totally unscientific internet poll of only 20,000 mostly pseudonymous internet users, and even though I hesistate to link to Daily Kos because the power structure there takes itself just a bit too seriously for my liking,  this is the best illustration I’ve found of the point I made in that prior post:


Edwards drops out, Obama picks up 35% more Democrats.   This should bury Hillary on Tuesday- if this trend is reflected in the broader base of Democratic voters, Hillary could lose every single Super Tuesday state.

Thank you, John Edwards, for saving the Democratic party from itself.

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Today, The Big Picture points out that Stein has been abusing his column at the New York Times, to the detriment of his reader’s sanity and financial well-being.

If Stein actually believed this gross oversimplification, I would dismiss him as just another clueless bobblehead. However, I believe he is marginally more intelligent than that. That makes me wonder if this column is purposefully misstating facts. Remember, Stein does not manage assets for a living, and was a political speech writer for Nixon. Everything he writes has a subtle [or not-so-subtle –ed.] political connotation — even if it ends up costing people a lot of money. Thus, the better explanation of his errors is that he is not merely clueless, but willfully misstating the US Economic situation for political purposes.

Heh-indeedy.  “Willfuly misstating” sounds a lot like “writing lies on purpose” if you say it fast enough.  I wonder if Stein understands that his columns are misleading or untruthful at the time he is writing them?  I also can’t help wondering about what stocks are in the investment portfolios that belong to him and to his editors.  It just might be time for Stein to do a column about rule 10(b)5.

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Via Glenn Greenwald:

… Republicans just basically assured that the PAA — which they spent the last seven months shrilly insisting was crucial if we are going to be Saved from The Terrorists — will expire on Friday without any new bill in place. Since the House is going out of session after tomorrow, there is no way to get a new bill in place before Friday. The Republicans, at Bush’s behest, just knowingly deprived the intelligence community of a tool they have long claimed is so vital.

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When the percentages are this high, it’s easy to start jumping to conclusions.  From Pew research at the end of last week:

Topping the list of those rated as positive influences by African Americans in a Pew survey is TV talk show host Oprah Winfrey, who wins the approval of nearly nine-in-ten (87%) black respondents

Remember, Oprah has endorsed Obama, and campaigned with him at several Iowa events.  I haven’t seen any news about whether her support has extended to other avenues of greater media exposure, such as giving him TV face time, or even discussing his candidacy approvingly on her show.  But consider this article which appeared yesterday from the Associated Press, after Barack Obama’s landslide win in Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic primary: (more…)

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The kids at Digg have noticed that someone posted a huge collection of Scientology documents on the web.  And from digg, someone posted a torrent of the file to PirateBay.  As I suggested last week, this is the obvious and natural consequence of drawing attention to that silly Tom Cruise video- people will yank the CoS chain, because now they know that it is guaranteed to get a reaction.

And the more that Scientology gets worked up about this, the more fun the internets will get out of dragging the cult’s most embarrasing secrets into the public eye.

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If you accept that the role of the Fed is to prop up US stock markets and prevent hedge fund managers from reaping the whirlwind sowed by their own poor investment choices, you might be happy that yesterday’s 0.75% rate cut appears to be working as planned.  If, however, you think lowering rates so that people can borrow more money from insolvent lenders to pay interest on underwater mortgage loans is a terrible idea, Businessweek has an article for you too.

I guess only time will tell which is right, but I don’t think we’ll have too long to wait.  ARM resets peak in the next nine months.

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Exactly where does active government intervention via “Emergency Rate Cut” fit into the efficient capital markets hypothesis?

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