The Edwards Factor

When the percentages are this high, it’s easy to start jumping to conclusions.  From Pew research at the end of last week:

Topping the list of those rated as positive influences by African Americans in a Pew survey is TV talk show host Oprah Winfrey, who wins the approval of nearly nine-in-ten (87%) black respondents

Remember, Oprah has endorsed Obama, and campaigned with him at several Iowa events.  I haven’t seen any news about whether her support has extended to other avenues of greater media exposure, such as giving him TV face time, or even discussing his candidacy approvingly on her show.  But consider this article which appeared yesterday from the Associated Press, after Barack Obama’s landslide win in Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic primary:

Blacks made up 55 percent of the voters in Saturday’s contest, slightly more than turned out in the state’s primary four years ago and by far their biggest share in any presidential contest so far this year. Obama won 78 percent of their votes, with black men and women supporting the Illinois senator by about that same margin

The AP and some other news agencies have been quick to report that Obama’s win in SC comes from his success among black voters, but they neglect to point out that 78% of the black voters who made up 55% of total voters is still only about 43% of the people who showed up.  Obama’s tally included 55% of the overall vote, more than double Hillary’s numbers.  The “black voters picked the black candidate” narrative fails to explain the votes of almost 55,000 people who voted for Obama and maybe 65,000 people who didn’t.  The basic story the AP is peddling simply ignores more than 20% of Democratic voters.

I think the emphasis on race is misplaced.  The interesting story is a little different, if not necessarily a whole lot more complicated.

To the extent that Obama and Edwards both represent “change” while Hillary represents “new boss, same as the old boss,” people voted overwhelmingly for change without regard to racial identity, by a margin of 73-27%.  I know that statistics can support any damn lie you want to tell, but I think it’s instructive that the Obama + Edwards margin among female voters is within a couple of points of the overall Obama + Edwards result:

…[Obama] got more than half the female vote, compared with three in 10 supporting Clinton, the New York senator.  [ed note: 50% + 30 % leaves 20% for Edwards]

But the gender breakdown was heavily affected by race. Though Obama won eight in 10 votes of black females, Clinton and Edwards led among white women, [each] getting about four in 10 of their votes, about double Obama’s share. [ed note: putting Obama at 20%]
Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, led among white men, garnering about four in 10 of their votes, with Clinton and Obama about equally sharing the rest.

So on gender lines, over 70% of women from all racial groups voted against Hillary.  And if we’re only talking about white women, arguably Hillary’s strongest demographic in a state like SC, over 50% of that racial/gender subgroup voted against Hillary.  And 70% of white men voted against Hillary.  Edwards is consistently coming in third, but I think it’s instructive to consider just how much support he might be stealing from Obama.

Too bad we don’t have space on the ballots for a second-place vote, because I think that information would end this contest now, and Democrats could stop the slap-fight they’ve been having and focus on utterly destroying the Republican party.